220.127.116.11 Risk Analysis Activity.
Analysis begins with a detailed study of the critical risk events that have
been identified. The objective is to gather enough information about the risks
to judge the probability of occurrence and the impact on cost, schedule, and
performance if the risk occurs.
Impact assessments are normally subjective and based on detailed
information that may come from:
- Comparisons with similar systems,
- Relevant lessons-learned studies,
- Results from tests and prototype development,
- Data from engineering or other models,
- Specialist and expert judgments,
- Analysis of plans and related documents,
- Modeling and simulation,
- Sensitivity analysis of alternatives.
Depending on the particular technique and the risk being analyzed, some
supporting analysis may be necessary, i.e., analysis of contractor processes,
such as design, engineering, fault tree analysis, engineering models,
simulation, etc. Analyses provide the basis for subjective assessments.
A critical aspect of risk analysis is data collection. Two primary sources
of data are interviews of subject-matter experts and analogy comparisons with
similar systems. Paragraph 5.4
contains a procedure for collecting both types of data for use in support of
the techniques listed in Table 2-1. Periodically, sets of risks need to be
prioritized in preparation for risk handling, and aggregated to support
program management reviews. Paragraph 5.5, Risk
Prioritization, describes methods for accomplishing this.