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Ames Research Center, National Aeronautics and Space Administration "Design
Definition Study of NASA/Navy Lift/Cruise Fan V/STOL Aircraft" Los Angeles:
Rockwell International, September 1975.
Describes the results of a study to assess technical risks associated with
the lift/cruise fan technology in the V/STOL aircraft program. Describes the
method for investigating sixteen items of potential technical risk.
Bateson, Robert G. "Risk Analysis Methodology Survey" Huntsville, AL:
Marshall Space Flight Center The University of Alabama in Huntsville,
Discusses program risk analysis as an iterative, systems analysis process.
Surveys commonly-used techniques and gives guidelines for selecting the most
Bell, Trudy E. "Managing Murphy's Law: Engineering a Minimum-Risk System."
"IEEE Spectrum," June 1989, pp 24-27.
Discusses examples of assessing and quantifying risk. Describes qualitative
and quantitative techniques for measuring the risk magnitude including hazard
analysis, failure modes and effects analysis, human factors analysis, event
tree analysis, and fault tree analysis.
Bell, Trudy E. "Special Report: Managing Risk in Large Complex Systems."
"IEEE Spectrum," June 1989, pp 22-52.
Describes the chief methods for assessing and evaluating risks in large
systems. Illustrates the concepts with case studies including the Challenger,
aging aircraft, and a pesticide plant. Points out crucial design and
management practices to identify and reduce technical risks.
Bell, Trudy E. and Kash, E. "The Space Shuttle: A Case of Subjective
Engineering." "IEEE SPECTRUM," June 1989, pp. 42-46.
Discusses the risk assessment procedures NASA used before the Challenger
accident in 1986. Recommends greater use of statistical risk assessment
instead of subjective engineering judgments.
Blanchard, Benjamin S. and Fabrycky, Wolter J. "Systems Engineering and
Analysis." Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1990.
Describes simulation techniques including Monte Carlo analysis to analyze
Braham, James. "What Price Stealth?" "Machine Design," February 21, 1991,
Describes the technical risks that led to the cancellation of the A-12
attack plane. Discusses the risks of trying to develop a high-technology,
radar-evading airplane that can survive the harsh environment of carrier
Committee on Shuttle Criticality Review and Hazard Analysis Audit.
"Post-Challenger Evaluation of Space Shuttle Risk Assessment and Management."
Washington, DC: National Academy Press, January 1988.
Reviews NASA's safety process, risk assessment and risk management
procedures, and recommended changes to improve the processes. Lists the
lessons learned and their implications for risk assessment and
Cooper, Dale and Chapman, Chris. "Risk Analysis for Large Projects: Models,
Methods, and Cases." New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1987.
Describes principles, models, techniques, and case studies of risk analysis
for large projects in engineering and economics. Also describes simulation and
other probabilistic techniques.
Defense Systems Management College." Risk
Management: Concepts and Guidance." Fort Belvoir, VA: DSMC, 1989.
Discusses the rationale, techniques, and implementation of quantitative
risk assessment of acquisition programs. Includes principles and examples of
decision analysis methods, simulation, graphic analysis, and risk factors.
Gives guidelines for selecting the appropriate techniques and then
Defense Systems Management College. "Systems Engineering Management Guide."
Fort Belvoir, VA: DSMC, October 1986.
Discusses risk analysis and management within the broader context of
systems engineering. Discusses procedures and models for assessing and
handling technical risks and avoiding common traps.
Department of Defense. "DoD Instruction 5000.2. Defense Acquisition
Management Policies and Procedures." Washington, DC: Department of Defense,
February 23, 1991.
Describes how the templates were incorporated into the DoD 5000.2 document
as part of core of fundamental policies and procedures for acquisition
Department of Defense. "Transition from Development to Production." DoD
4245.7-M, September 1985.
Describes techniques for avoiding technical risks in 47 key areas or
templates in funding, design, test, production, facilities, logistics,
management, and transition plan.
Department of the Navy. "Best Practices: How to Avoid Surprises in the
World's Most Complicated Technical Process." NAVSO P-6071, March 1986.
Discusses how to avoid traps and risks by implementing best practices for
47 areas or templates including technical risk assessment.
General Accounting Office. "Technical Risk Assessment: The Status of
Current DoD Efforts." Washington, DC: GAO, April 1986.
Describes findings from its study of 25 major weapons systems in the Army,
Navy, and Air Force that include lack of a consistent definition of technical
risk and failure to adhere to criteria of good technical risk assessment.
Describes five criteria of technical risk assessment systems.
Gold, Philip. "Putting a Run on Industry." "Insight," February 25, 1991,
Discusses risks of not being able to accelerate production of critical
items in emergencies and ways of managing those risks.
Ireland, L. A. "A Risk Management Model for the Defense System Acquisition
Process." "Defense Risk and Uncertainty Workshop," July 13-15, 1983.
Discusses implications of the various meanings of technical risk assessment
and a model for managing technical risk.
Koren, James M. "Basic Fault Tree Analysis." "1991 Tutorial Notes: Topics
in Reliability and Maintainability and Statistics." 1991 Annual Reliability
and Maintainability Symposium," January 1991, pp. 1-38.
Describes the basic techniques and pitfalls in applying fault tree analysis
to practical problems. Provides practical information for cost-effective
"Packard Was Right." "Aviation Week and Space Technology," January 14,
Discusses lessons learned from the cancellation of the A-12 program
including the need for competitive prototyping of revolutionary technology
(e.g., the conflicting requirements of low observability, speed, and carrier
landings), the risks of fixed-price full-scale-development contracts with
unproven technology, and the need for contractors to be forthcoming about
technical risks as they identify them.
Poucet, A. "Fault Tree and Event Tree Techniques." In A. Amendola and A.
Saiz de Bustamente (Eds.), "Reliability Engineering." Norwell, MA: Kluwer
Academic Publishers, 1988, pp. 129-169.
Describes fault tree analysis and event tree analysis as techniques to
identify and analyze technical risks. Discusses how to calculate the expected
number of failures and their probability. Discusses special problems related
to fault tree analysis.
Priest, John W. "Engineering Design for Producibility and Reliability." New
York: Marcel Dekker, 1988.
Describes elements for an effective technical risk management program
including a planning and control system, tracking indicators, status
assessment, early problem identification, analysis, minimization, and
Raheja, Dev G. "Assurance Technologies: Principles and Practices." New
York: McGraw-Hill, 1991.
Discusses principles, case histories, and examples of assurance
technologies including system safety engineering, quality assurance
engineering, and human factors engineering. Also describes simulation and
other techniques useful in risk assessment.
Shaw, T. E. "An Overview of Risk Management Techniques, Methods, and
Application." Paper presented at the AIAA Space Programs and Technologies
Conference, Huntsville, AL, September 25-28, 1990.
Discusses how the DoD templates can be used in technical risk assessment
and how to assess the probability of risk by weighting software and hardware
maturity and complexity.
Technology and Assessment Office. "Production Assessment of GTE MSE
Division Integration and Assembly Facility." AMSEL-ED-S, November 25,
Describes the preliminary risk assessment of GTE's Mobile Subscriber
Equipment (MSE) facility at Taunton, MA. Describes risks in product design,
industrial resources, materials and parts, production, quality assurance and
test, and management.
Technology and Assessment Office. "Production Assessment of GTE MSE
Division Integration and Assembly Facility." AMSEL-ED-SP, June 14,
Describes the follow-up risk assessment of GTE's Mobile Subscriber
Equipment (MSE) facility at Taunton, MA. Describes significant improvements
GTE made as a result of the first assessment in design, parts-and-material
procurement, quality assurance, and management commitment.
U.S. Army Materiel Command. "Army Programs: Decision Risk Analysis." Fort
Lee, VA: U.S. Army Logistics Managua College, March 1990.
Describes history and uses of risk analyses, mathematical skills, decision
analysis techniques (decision trees, sensitivity analysis), tools for
subjectively estimating values used in risk analyses, network analysis,
simulation, multiple-attribute decision-making techniques, and artificial
intelligence and expert systems. Includes examples of applying the tools in a
technical risk assessment of the 155mm howitzer, XM198.
U.S. Army Materiel Command. "Managing Relocation of Production."
Alexandria, VA: U.S. Army Materiel Command, April 1987.
Identifies high-risk factors related to production facility relocation and
provides guidelines for minimizing relocation risks. Includes lessons learned
from several programs. Includes risks and guidelines for production, design,
quality assurance and test, logistics, management, and relocation
U.S. Army Materiel Command. "Program Management Risk Reduction Roadmaps."
Alexandria, VA: U.S. Army Materiel Command, September 1987.
Uses the DoD templates as the foundation for risk reduction roadmaps for
Waganer, Lester N. and Zuckerman, David S. "Methodology for Technical Risk
Assessment." "IEEE," 1983, pp. 1128-1132.
Describes methods to assess the technical risk of a fuel system for a
fusion reactor. Describes how to obtain key technical performance parameters
and data by using a Bayesian interrogation technique and then express the
output performance of the system as probability functions. Applies this
methodology to assess risks in an MCF fuel system being developed at McDonnell
"Why the A-12 Was Cancelled." "Jane's Defence Weekly," February 9, 1991, p.
Describes problems with the A-12 including the contractors' limited stealth
experience and the difficulties of making major design changes on a