The starting point for determining total program risk
is to identify known or potential risk areas. This responsibility should be
accepted by each person involved with the design, test,
construction/manufacture, operation, support and eventual disposal of a weapon
system, its subsystems and components. The earlier in the program that these
risks are identified, the easier they will be to manage and the less negative
impact they will have on program cost, schedule, and performance objectives.
To facilitate the proactive identification of risks, there are methods and
tools available for consideration. See Chapter 1, Figure 1-1 , Critical Process Risk Management.
The next step is to assess the technical risk of each
risk area identified within the program. These risk assessments are conducted
to determine the disruption to your program as a function of two parameters,
the level of each critical process variance from a known standard, and the
consequence, i.e., the magnitude of the impact if the particular risk is
realized. The levels for each parameter are used to enter the Assessment Guide
grid, as shown in Chapter 1,
Figure 1-2 , Critical Process Risk Assessment, and the result is either a low, moderate, or high risk assessment. Note that the "Consequence" level takes into account the impact on technical performance, schedule, cost and other teams.
Total program risk assessment is determined by
"rolling-up" all of the critical process risk area assessments affecting the
program. The approach to risk assessment may vary depending on program
philosophy. Chapter 1,
"Choose an Approach," provides additional details on approaches to technical risk management.