||TR 1-99: DoD Acquisition Management Metrics
lists the primary findings of this study. Most findings are discussed in
greater detail later in this Chapter, and in Chapter 6 .
Also, several findings are illustrated in the figures used herein.
General Management Metrics
The degree of cost and schedule overruns can be
directly related to the Cold War years, (pre-1989) and post Cold
- The average cost and schedule overruns for 33 program whose EMD
phase ended between 1980 and 1996 was 40 percent in cost and 62
percent in schedule.
Large schedule overruns exceeded large cost overruns as
shown in Figure 2.
In Figure 2, if the nine programs whose cost or schedule
overrun was greater than 100 percent are considered outliers, and
excluded, the average cost overrun is 19 percent and average schedule
overrun is 34 percent, approximately half the total
Figure 5 indicates the cost growth of DoD weapon systems
in their development phase compares favorably with other Governmental
and private industry complex projects development.
The average duration of the EMD phase was shortest during
the Cold War period, (pre-' 89), at 6.5 years. The average duration
was longest, 8.7 years, during '93-96. In '97 two programs had an
average duration of 8.3 years.
Excellent cost data correlation existed between the total
program costs obtained from the "Blue Books" used in the original
research and the surrogate total program costs obtained from the
The software complexity of a program usually cannot be
obtained from the SAR reports.
It is too early to measure the success of AR. However this
research provides an esti-mate of the DoD acquisition management
success prior to AR initiatives, and at some future date can be used
to similarly measure the improvements achieved.
This research makes no attempt to evaluate the program's
success in its operational role.
Operational Test Metrics
This research evaluation indicates a noticeable
difference between performance evaluations by the OTAs and the
independent evaluations of the DOT&E.
- The number of test articles used in EMD is not a valid indicator
of the success of that program. The number of test hours during EMD
would be a better metric, but this was not obtainable by this
The OTA operational test reports are usually more positive
than the DOT&E
TABLE 1. Primary