||TR 1-99: DoD Acquisition Management Metrics
Conclusions and Recommendations
- This trend data is informative and can be used to focus managerial
change efforts. The end of the Cold War (1989) appears to have had a
significant impact on cost and schedule data.
- The DoD 1980-1996 average EMD cost and schedule overruns were 40 percent
and 62 percent respectively. This compares favorably with other government and
private complex development projects.
- The duration of the EMD phase has increased since 1980-88, but in 1997 the
only currently entered data shows a reversal trend.
- Review the SAR format and required contents. The preparation
instructions for SARs state "The results of operational testing will take
highest precedence in determination of demonstrated performance." However, there
is little or no requirement to include OT periods in the SAR schedule
section. The sample SAR included in the DoD instructions require reporting only "DT/OT
II Complete." Also, the degree of software required within the developing
system is an important consideration affecting program success. The SAR
requires no specific comments about software.
- SARs are required for ACAT I programs only. A report similar to the
SAR should be required for less than ACAT I programs listed on the DOT&E
- This research data is contained on an Excel spreadsheet which limits
analysis. A prototype advanced database has been developed to allow for
multivariate regression analyses, but is not funded at the present time.
- This factual data should be combined with other databases, similar
research efforts, and existing analyses to develop "leading indicators" that
might be used to predict program developmental success. This would include a
more sophisticated database for this research data.
- Research should be initiated to compare and contrast the results of the
ACTD initiative with the results of other systems being developed under the
5000 series regulations.
At some future date, the success of the current AR initiative should be
measured using the methodology and baseline developed by this research effort.